Category Archives: Publications

ISF2018 Presentation: Beyond summary performance metrics for forecast selection and combination

Nikolaos Kourentzes, Ivan Svetunkov and Stephan Kolassa, ISF2018, 20th June 2018. In doing forecast selection or combination we typically rely on some performance metric. For example, that could be Akaike Information Criterion or some cross-validated accuracy measure. From these we can either pick the top performer, or construct combination weights. There is ample empirical evidence… Read More »

ISF2018 Presentation: Information Sharing in the Presence of Promotions in a Supply Chain

Patrick Saoud, Nikolaos Kourentzes and John Boylan, ISF2018, 20th June 2018 Many supply chains experience the Bullwhip effect, defined as the upstream amplification of demand variability. This information distortion results in a misalignment of forecasts, generating expensive business costs. A proposed remedy in the literature is the sharing of Point of Sales information data among… Read More »

ISF 2018 Presentation: The inventory impact of including macroeconomic leading indicators in global supply chain management

Yves R. Sagaert, Nikolaos Kourentzes, Stijn De Vuyst and El-houssaine Aghezzaf, ISf2018, 19th June 2018 Supply chain management is increasingly performed at a global level. The decision process is often based on tactical sales forecasts, which has been shown to benefit from including relevant exogenous information. Leading indicators that cover different aspects of macroeconomic dynamics… Read More »

ISF2018 Presentation: Interpreting algorithmic and qualitative information when making judgmental forecast adjustments

Anna Sroginis, Robert Fildes and Nikolaos Kourentzes, ISF2018, 19th June 2018 Despite the continuous improvements in statistical forecasting, human judgment remains essential in business forecasting and demand planning. Typically, forecasters do not solely rely on statistical forecasts, which are obtained from various Forecasting Support Systems (FSS); they also adjust forecasts according to their knowledge, experience… Read More »