ISF2018 Presentation: Interpreting algorithmic and qualitative information when making judgmental forecast adjustments

Anna Sroginis, Robert Fildes and Nikolaos Kourentzes, ISF2018, 19th June 2018 Despite the continuous improvements in statistical forecasting, human judgment remains essential in business forecasting and demand planning. Typically, forecasters do not solely rely on statistical forecasts, which are obtained from various Forecasting Support Systems (FSS); they also adjust forecasts according to their knowledge, experience… Read More »

ISF 2018 Presentation: Estimating the market potential pre-launch with search traffic

Oliver Schaer, Nikolaos Kourentzes and Robert Fildes, ISF2018, 18th June 2018 With shorter product life-cycles and increased competition, generating pre-launch forecasts is a vital task for companies. Forecasting the success of a new product is challenging as one need to estimate the market potential. In practice, this is typically done by expert judgment. However, there… Read More »

ISF 2018 Presentation: The dynamics of judgmental adjustments

Robert Fildes and Nikolaos Kourentzes, ISF2018, 19th June 2018 Judgement plays a central role in forecasting, as statistical forecasts are often modified before informing user decisions. There is strong evidence that judgemental adjustments can be beneficial, yet inconsistent, often harming forecast accuracy. This has motivated research into how to best manage judgemental adjustments to maximise… Read More »

Can you predict the closing price of Bitcoin?

Lately, there has been a lot of talks whether Bitcoin is a bubble (about to burst) or not. The discussion is quite interesting, not only because there is potentially a lot of money involved, but also because it shows how our economic theories are primarily unclear and secondarily incomplete on concepts such as bubbles and… Read More »

nnfor on github

I have put up a github repository for the nnfor package for R: https://github.com/trnnick/nnfor I will be putting updates and fixes there, before they are pushed on CRAN. You can also report there bugs. You can install the current github version with:

Congratulations Dr. Sagaert!

Yesterday, Yves Sagaert successfully defended his PhD in a public presentation at Ghent University! Yves’ PhD research has been on: tactical sales forecasting with external leading indicators. It has been a pleasure to work with Yves over the past years! During his PhD he published two papers, with more currently under review: Sagaert, Y.R., Aghezzaf,… Read More »

New R package nnfor: time series forecasting with neural networks

My new R package nnfor is available on CRAN. This collects the various neural network functions that appeared in TStools. See this post for demo of these functions. In summary the package includes: Automatic, semi-automatic or fully manual specification of MLP neural networks for time series modelling, that helps in specifying inputs with lags of the… Read More »

Principles of Business Forecasting 2e

I recently got my hands on a physical copy of my new book: Principles of Business Forecasting (2nd edition). Ord, K., Fildes, R. and Kourentzes, N., 2017. Principles of business forecasting. 2nd ed. Wessex Press Publishing Co. I was invited by Keith Ord and Robert Fildes to join them in writing the much-revised 2nd edition… Read More »