Tag Archives: exponential smoothing

ISF 2015 and invited session on “Forecasting with Combinations and Hierarchies”

The International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF 2015) was held this week in Riverside, CA. It was a very interesting conference, with stimulating talks and a wide variety of forecasting related topics, both for academics and practitioners. It is a highly recommended conference to attend. I organised the invited session on the topic of “Forecasting with… Read More »

Guest post: On the robustness of bagging exponential smoothing

This is a guest blog entry by Fotios Petropoulos. A few months ago, Bergmeir, Hyndman and Benitez made available a very interesting working paper titled “Bagging exponential smoothing methods using STL decomposition and Box-Cox transformation”. In short, they successfully employed the bootstrap aggregation technique for improving the performance of exponential smoothing. The bootstrap technique is… Read More »

Improving your forecasts using multiple temporal aggregation

In most business forecasting applications, the problem usually directs the sampling frequency of the data that we collect and use for forecasting. Conventional approaches try to extract information from the historical observations to build a forecasting model. In this article, we explore how transforming the data through temporal aggregation allows us to gather additional information… Read More »