Tag Archives: judgement

ISF2017 presentation: DIY forecasting – judgement, models & judgmental model selection

This is joint work with Fotios Petropoulos and Kostantinos Nikolopoulos and discusses the performance of experts selecting forecasting models, against automatic statistical model selection, as well as providing guidelines how to maximise the benefits. This is very exciting research, demonstrating the both some limitations of statistical model selection (and avenues for new research), as well… Read More »

Can you spot trend in time series?

Past experiments have demonstrated that humans (with or without formal training) are quite good at visually identifying the structure of time series. Trend is a key component, and arguably the most relevant to practice, as many of the forecasts that affect our lives have to do with potential increases or decreases of economic variables. Forecasters… Read More »

Forecasting Society launched!

Together with Fotios Petropoulos we launched a new portal to facilitate judgemental forecasting research. The aim of the Forecasting Society (www.forsoc.net) is to bring together researchers in judgemental forecasting and participants from practice and academia. At the same we hope that it will grow to be a discussion forum to exchange and promote judgemental forecasting… Read More »

Participate in our Judgemental Model Selection Experiment!

We are invit­ing you to par­tic­i­pate in a web-​​based judg­men­tal fore­cast­ing exer­cise. You are asked to select the best model, based on your judg­ment, for 32 time series. The exer­cise con­sists of four rounds. Each round will con­tain 8 series and will be fol­lowed by a short ques­tion­naire, while dif­fer­ent types of infor­ma­tion will be pro­vided on top… Read More »