Tag Archives: model selection

Additive and multiplicative seasonality – can you identify them correctly?

Seasonality is a common characteristic of time series. It can appear in two forms: additive and multiplicative. In the former case the amplitude of the seasonal variation is independent of the level, whereas in the latter it is connected. The following figure highlights this: Note that in the example of multiplicative seasonality the season is… Read More »

Improving your forecasts using multiple temporal aggregation

In most business forecasting applications, the problem usually directs the sampling frequency of the data that we collect and use for forecasting. Conventional approaches try to extract information from the historical observations to build a forecasting model. In this article, we explore how transforming the data through temporal aggregation allows us to gather additional information… Read More »

Participate in our Judgemental Model Selection Experiment!

We are invit­ing you to par­tic­i­pate in a web-​​based judg­men­tal fore­cast­ing exer­cise. You are asked to select the best model, based on your judg­ment, for 32 time series. The exer­cise con­sists of four rounds. Each round will con­tain 8 series and will be fol­lowed by a short ques­tion­naire, while dif­fer­ent types of infor­ma­tion will be pro­vided on top… Read More »