Tag Archives: optimisation

OR59 Keynote: Uncertainty in predictive modelling

I recently presented at the OR59 conference my views and current work (with colleagues) on uncertainty in predictive modelling. I think this is a topic that deserves quite a bit of research attention, as it has substnatial implications for estimation, model selection and eventually decision making. The talk has three parts: Argue (as others before… Read More »

Forecasting Solar Irradiance: True models, trace optimisation and shrinkage

This is a talk I am giving today at Tasmanian School of Business and Economics at University of Tasmania. It connects two different research areas I am currently working on: solar irradiance forecasting and parameter optimisation under model uncertainty. You can find the presentation here. Half of the presentation is based on this paper if… Read More »

Choosing parameters for Croston’s method and its variants

Although Croston’s method and its variants are popular for intermittent demand time series, there have been limited advances in identifying how to select appropriate smoothing parameters and initial values. From the one hand this complicates forecasting for organisations, and from the other hand it does not permit automation. Recent research investigated various cost functions for… Read More »