A few weeks ago I gave a talk at Amazon’s 2019 AMLC in Seattle. The talk was focused on current research in temporal and cross-temporal hierarchies. People who have been following my blog will be familiar with the topic and recent advances. This talk is different in the sense that it does not go in… Read More »
This year’s International Symposium on Forecasting has been a great success. Very exciting talks and large attendance from both academics and practitioners. I really enjoy conferences that the two groups interact organically: only this way research is both relevant and adopted fast, so that it makes a difference! This year I was invited by Haiyan… Read More »
1. Introductory remarks One of the recurrent topics in online discussions on sales forecasting and demand planning is the idea of the “one-number forecast”, that is a common view of the future on which multiple plans and decisions can be made, from different functions of an organisation. In principle, this is yet another idea around… Read More »
Nikolaos Kourentzes and George Athanasopoulos, 2019, Annals of Tourism Research.
Temporal Hierarchies In the previous post we saw how the Multiple Aggregation Prediction Algortihm (MAPA) implements the ideas of MTA. We also saw that it has some limitations, particularly requiring splitting forecasts into subcomponents (level, trend and seasonality). Although some forecasting methods provide such outputs naturally, for example Exponential Smoothing and Theta, others do not.… Read More »
This is joint work with Rickard Sandberg and looks at the implicit connections enforced by hierarchical time series forecasting, between the nodes of the hierarchy, contrasting them to VAR models that captures connections explicitly. Abstract The four major Scandinavian economies (Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway) have high workforce mobility and depending on market dynamics the… Read More »
I started this month my sabbatical leave and I am currently visiting the Center for Economic Statistics at the Stockholm School of Economics until the end of December, 2016. My thanks to Rickard Sandberg, who is hosting me and is also the director of the centre. The focus of our research will be on business… Read More »
The International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF 2015) was held this week in Riverside, CA. It was a very interesting conference, with stimulating talks and a wide variety of forecasting related topics, both for academics and practitioners. It is a highly recommended conference to attend. I organised the invited session on the topic of “Forecasting with… Read More »