Tag Archives: hierarchical forecasting

ISF2019 talk: Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for tourism forecasting

This year’s International Symposium on Forecasting has been a great success. Very exciting talks and large attendance from both academics and practitioners. I really enjoy conferences that the two groups interact organically: only this way research is both relevant and adopted fast, so that it makes a difference! This year I was invited by Haiyan… Read More »

Towards the “one-number forecast”

1. Introductory remarks One of the recurrent topics in online discussions on sales forecasting and demand planning is the idea of the “one-number forecast”, that is a common view of the future on which multiple plans and decisions can be made, from different functions of an organisation. In principle, this is yet another idea around… Read More »

Multiple temporal aggregation: the story so far. Part IV: Temporal Hierarchies

Temporal Hierarchies In the previous post we saw how the Multiple Aggregation Prediction Algortihm (MAPA) implements the ideas of MTA. We also saw that it has some limitations, particularly requiring splitting forecasts into subcomponents (level, trend and seasonality). Although some forecasting methods provide such outputs naturally, for example Exponential Smoothing and Theta, others do not.… Read More »

ISF 2017 presentation: A hierarchical approach to forecasting Scandinavian unemployment

This is joint work with Rickard Sandberg and looks at the implicit connections enforced by hierarchical time series forecasting, between the nodes of the hierarchy, contrasting them to VAR models that captures connections explicitly. Abstract The four major Scandinavian economies (Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway) have high workforce mobility and depending on market dynamics the… Read More »

ISF 2015 and invited session on “Forecasting with Combinations and Hierarchies”

The International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF 2015) was held this week in Riverside, CA. It was a very interesting conference, with stimulating talks and a wide variety of forecasting related topics, both for academics and practitioners. It is a highly recommended conference to attend. I organised the invited session on the topic of “Forecasting with… Read More »