Tag Archives: hierarchical forecasting

ISF 2020: A geometry inspired hierarchical forecasting methodology

The slides for my presentation at the International Symposium on Forecasting 2020 are available here. Building on the work by Pangiotelis et al. (2020) we investigate the implications of the geometric interpretation of hierarchical forecasting further. We propose a new framework for generating hierarchical forecasts, which encompasses previous hierarchical methods while providing insights on their… Read More »

Special issue on innovations in hierarchical forecasting

We are inviting submissions to a special issue at the International Journal of Forecasting on the topic of “Innovations in Hierarchical Forecasting”. The special issue is guest edited by G. Athanasopoulos, R. J. Hyndman, A. Panagiotelis and myself and its submission deadline is on the 31st of August 2021. Organisations make multiple decisions informed by… Read More »

Forecasting Forum Scandinavia – first workshop!

Last week we run the first workshop of the Forecasting Forum Scandinavia, hoping to start an ongoing discussion between academia and practice around forecasting and predictive analytics. The vision is for this to be the catalyst in: providing innovative solutions to real business problems, at a rigorous scientific standard; shorten the path to implementing innovative… Read More »

ISF2019 talk: Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for tourism forecasting

This year’s International Symposium on Forecasting has been a great success. Very exciting talks and large attendance from both academics and practitioners. I really enjoy conferences that the two groups interact organically: only this way research is both relevant and adopted fast, so that it makes a difference! This year I was invited by Haiyan… Read More »

Towards the “one-number forecast”

1. Introductory remarks One of the recurrent topics in online discussions on sales forecasting and demand planning is the idea of the “one-number forecast”, that is a common view of the future on which multiple plans and decisions can be made, from different functions of an organisation. In principle, this is yet another idea around… Read More »

Multiple temporal aggregation: the story so far. Part IV: Temporal Hierarchies

Temporal Hierarchies In the previous post we saw how the Multiple Aggregation Prediction Algortihm (MAPA) implements the ideas of MTA. We also saw that it has some limitations, particularly requiring splitting forecasts into subcomponents (level, trend and seasonality). Although some forecasting methods provide such outputs naturally, for example Exponential Smoothing and Theta, others do not.… Read More »

ISF 2017 presentation: A hierarchical approach to forecasting Scandinavian unemployment

This is joint work with Rickard Sandberg and looks at the implicit connections enforced by hierarchical time series forecasting, between the nodes of the hierarchy, contrasting them to VAR models that captures connections explicitly. Abstract The four major Scandinavian economies (Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway) have high workforce mobility and depending on market dynamics the… Read More »