Together with Devon Barrow and Sven Crone, we gave a talk at the recent OR 62 conference, moderated by Christina Phillips. The topic was: “The quest for greater forecasting accuracy: Perspectives from Statistics & Machine Learning”. I have worked with both Devon and Sven in the past years and the three of us share quite… Read More »
Anna Sroginis, Robert Fildes and Nikolaos Kourentzes, ISF2018, 19th June 2018 Despite the continuous improvements in statistical forecasting, human judgment remains essential in business forecasting and demand planning. Typically, forecasters do not solely rely on statistical forecasts, which are obtained from various Forecasting Support Systems (FSS); they also adjust forecasts according to their knowledge, experience… Read More »
Robert Fildes and Nikolaos Kourentzes, ISF2018, 19th June 2018 Judgement plays a central role in forecasting, as statistical forecasts are often modified before informing user decisions. There is strong evidence that judgemental adjustments can be beneficial, yet inconsistent, often harming forecast accuracy. This has motivated research into how to best manage judgemental adjustments to maximise… Read More »
In this post I introduce a new bias metric that has several desirable properties over traditional ones. When evaluating forecasting performance it is important to look at two elements: forecasting accuracy and bias. Although there has been substantial progress in the measurement of accuracy with various metrics being proposed, there has been rather limited progress… Read More »
Want to learn more about the Forecasting Society? These videos will give you an idea what it is all about. Are you a researcher in forecasting? or are you interested in participating in forecasting research? Either way, if you are interested in the area and in particular when human judgement is involved, the Forecasting Society… Read More »
Together with Fotios Petropoulos we launched a new portal to facilitate judgemental forecasting research. The aim of the Forecasting Society (www.forsoc.net) is to bring together researchers in judgemental forecasting and participants from practice and academia. At the same we hope that it will grow to be a discussion forum to exchange and promote judgemental forecasting… Read More »
J. R. Trapero, D. J. Pedregal, R. Fildes and N. Kourentzes, 2013, International Journal of Forecasting, 29: 234-243. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.10.002