Nikolaos Kourentzes, Andrea Saayman, Philippe Jean-Pierre, Davide Provenzano, Mondher Sahli, Neelu Seetaram, and Serena Volo, 2021, Annals of Tourism Research<\/i> 88: 103197.<\/p>\n

COVID-19 disrupted international tourism worldwide, subsequently presenting forecasters with a challenging conundrum. In this competition, we predict international arrivals for 20 destinations in two phases: (i) Ex post forecasts pre-COVID; (ii) Ex ante forecasts during and after the pandemic up to end 2021. Our results show that univariate combined with cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting techniques (THieF-ETS) outperform multivariate models pre-COVID. Scenarios were developed based on judgemental adjustment of the THieF-ETS baseline forecasts. Analysts provided a regional view on the most likely path to normal, based on country-specific regulations, macroeconomic conditions, seasonal factors and vaccine development. Results show an average recovery of 58% compared to 2019 tourist arrivals in the 20 destinations under the medium scenario; severe, it is 34% and mild, 80%.<\/p>\n

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Nikolaos Kourentzes, Andrea Saayman, Philippe Jean-Pierre, Davide Provenzano, Mondher Sahli, Neelu Seetaram, and Serena Volo, 2021, Annals of Tourism Research 88: 103197.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,8],"tags":[67,44,68],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1687"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1687"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1687\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1689,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1687\/revisions\/1689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1687"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1687"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}