{"id":876,"date":"2015-08-13T23:02:07","date_gmt":"2015-08-13T23:02:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/?p=876"},"modified":"2015-08-28T22:59:28","modified_gmt":"2015-08-28T22:59:28","slug":"forecasting-with-temporal-hierarchies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2015\/08\/13\/forecasting-with-temporal-hierarchies\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is a talk that I am giving today at the University of Sydney Business School. This research builds upon <a href=\"http:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2014\/04\/19\/improving-forecasting-by-estimating-time-series-structural-components-across-multiple-frequencies\/\">MAPA<\/a> and cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting, in particular optimal combinations. Temporal hierarchies reconcile across time, resulting in accurate short and long-term forecasts that can lead to aligned plans and decisions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Temporal hierarchies can be used with any time series and forecasting method, even expert judgement, overcoming the limitations of MAPA, but retaining all its strengths.<\/p>\n<p>You can find the presentation <a href=\"http:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/TempHier20150814_Kourentzes.pdf\">here<\/a> and a working paper <a href=\"http:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2015\/08\/28\/forecasting-with-temporal-hierarchies-2\/\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">R code for temporal hierarchies will be released soon.<\/p>\n<div class=\"SPOSTARBUST-Related-Posts\"><H3>Related Posts<\/H3><ul class=\"entry-meta\"><li class=\"SPOSTARBUST-Related-Post\"><a title=\"Stochastic Coherency in Forecast Reconciliation\" href=\"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2021\/07\/09\/stochastic-coherency-in-forecast-reconciliation\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Stochastic Coherency in Forecast Reconciliation<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"SPOSTARBUST-Related-Post\"><a title=\"Visitor Arrivals Forecasts amid COVID-19: A Perspective from the Africa Team\" href=\"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2021\/07\/09\/visitor-arrivals-forecasts-amid-covid-19-a-perspective-from-the-africa-team\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Visitor Arrivals Forecasts amid COVID-19: A Perspective from the Africa Team<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"SPOSTARBUST-Related-Post\"><a title=\"ISF 2020: A geometry inspired hierarchical forecasting methodology\" href=\"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2020\/10\/25\/isf-2020-using-information-from-the-business-environment-to-improve-forecasting\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">ISF 2020: A geometry inspired hierarchical forecasting methodology<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div><!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is a talk that I am giving today at the University of Sydney Business School. This research builds upon MAPA and cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting, in particular optimal combinations. Temporal hierarchies reconcile across time, resulting in accurate short and long-term forecasts that can lead to aligned plans and decisions. Temporal hierarchies can be used with\u2026 <span class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2015\/08\/13\/forecasting-with-temporal-hierarchies\/\">Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/span><!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[73],"tags":[32,55,38,36,68],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/876"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=876"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/876\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<!-- WP Super Cache is installed but broken. 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