{"id":944,"date":"2016-01-27T16:42:22","date_gmt":"2016-01-27T16:42:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/?p=944"},"modified":"2016-01-27T16:42:22","modified_gmt":"2016-01-27T16:42:22","slug":"isir-2016-special-session-on-estimating-demand-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2016\/01\/27\/isir-2016-special-session-on-estimating-demand-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"ISIR 2016: Special session on `Estimating Demand Uncertainty&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I will be hosting a special session on <strong>Estimating Demand Uncertainty <\/strong>in the upcoming International Society for Inventory Research conference <a href=\"http:\/\/isirsymposium.hu\" target=\"_blank\">ISIR2016<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The link between forecasting and inventory calculations is often not as clear as it should be. This is evident by the formulas used for the safety stock calculation: the expected demand and its uncertainty are often based on very strong assumptions (stationarity, normality, i.i.d errors, etc) and are not valid when looking at the empirical results from real world forecast. The focus of this session will be to progress this discussion by looking how forecasts and their errors should be best translated to support inventory decisions.<\/p>\n<p>Particular focus will be on:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>the estimation expected demand, demand uncertainty and its distributional aspects, attempting to answer the question how to update the formuli to reflect non-independent errors, which occur by construction in our forecasts.<\/li>\n<li>update our formuli to remove unrealistically strong assumptions, so as to reflect reality and support practice. The main interest is to do so in a way that can be transfered to practice.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>The abstract submission deadline is on the <strong>31st of March 2016<\/strong>. A selection of submitted works will be published in a special issue of the International Journal of Production Economics. For more details see the submission information at the conference <a href=\"http:\/\/isirsymposium.hu\/\" target=\"_blank\">website<\/a>. When submitting your abstract you will be able to select the special session there.<\/p>\n<p>Please contact <a href=\"mai&#108;&#x74;&#x6f;&#x3a;&#x6e;iko&#108;&#x61;&#x6f;&#x73;&#x40;kou&#114;&#101;&#x6e;&#x74;&#x7a;&#x65;s.c&#111;&#x6d;\" target=\"_blank\">me<\/a> if you are interested or have any more questions, or leave a comment below.<\/p>\n<div class=\"SPOSTARBUST-Related-Posts\"><H3>Related Posts<\/H3><ul class=\"entry-meta\"><li class=\"SPOSTARBUST-Related-Post\"><a title=\"Elucidate structure in intermittent demand time series\" href=\"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2020\/05\/25\/elucidate-structure-in-intermittent-demand-time-series\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Elucidate structure in intermittent demand time series<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"SPOSTARBUST-Related-Post\"><a title=\"Optimising forecasting models for inventory planning\" href=\"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2020\/05\/25\/optimising-forecasting-models-for-inventory-planning\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Optimising forecasting models for inventory planning<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"SPOSTARBUST-Related-Post\"><a title=\"Forecasting keynote at AMLC 2019\" href=\"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2019\/08\/01\/forecasting-keynote-at-amlc-2019\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Forecasting keynote at AMLC 2019<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div><!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I will be hosting a special session on Estimating Demand Uncertainty in the upcoming International Society for Inventory Research conference ISIR2016. The link between forecasting and inventory calculations is often not as clear as it should be. This is evident by the formulas used for the safety stock calculation: the expected demand and its uncertainty\u2026 <span class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2016\/01\/27\/isir-2016-special-session-on-estimating-demand-uncertainty\/\">Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/span><!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[41],"tags":[62,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/944"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=944"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/944\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<!-- WP Super Cache is installed but broken. 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