{"id":947,"date":"2016-02-08T00:17:22","date_gmt":"2016-02-08T00:17:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/?p=947"},"modified":"2016-02-08T00:33:35","modified_gmt":"2016-02-08T00:33:35","slug":"how-to-fit-an-elephant","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kourentzes.com\/forecasting\/2016\/02\/08\/how-to-fit-an-elephant\/","title":{"rendered":"How to fit an elephant?"},"content":{"rendered":"

I was looking for an intuitive way to demonstrate to my students the need for parsimony in model building, as well as the problem of overfitting and I remembered the humorous paper by James Wel: showing that elephants are obviously created by Fourier sine series! I went a step further and implemented some popular selection methods and interpolation. It is interesting to see how the different selection methods perform, given different number of sines and how they (over-\/under-) fit, when asked to interpolate – in a predictive modelling spirit.<\/p>\n

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