In most business forecasting applications, the problem usually directs the sampling frequency of the data that we collect and use for forecasting. Conventional approaches try to extract information from the historical observations to build a forecasting model. In this article, we explore how transforming the data through temporal aggregation allows us to gather additional information… Read More »
Amongst various minor improvements a few interesting new functions have been added to TStools package for R: Theta method ABC-XYZ analysis Theta method was found to be the most accurate in the M3 forecasting competition, but since then there has been limited use of the method. As it was later shown, the M3 competition Theta… Read More »
Update: The following R commands will install a package directly from GitHub to R: > if (!require(“devtools”)) install.packages(“devtools”) > devtools::install_github(“YYY/ZZZ”) where YYY is the GitHub username and ZZZ is the package name. For example to install TStools use: > devtools::install_github(“trnnick/TStools”) This makes the process described below unnecessary, however if you want the ‘full’ story read… Read More »
We are inviting you to participate in a web-based judgmental forecasting exercise. You are asked to select the best model, based on your judgment, for 32 time series. The exercise consists of four rounds. Each round will contain 8 series and will be followed by a short questionnaire, while different types of information will be provided on top… Read More »