Automatic robust estimation for exponential smoothing: perspectives from statistics and machine learning
Devon Barrow, Nikolaos Kourentzes, Rickard Sandberg, and Jacek Niklewski, 2020. Expert Systems with Applications.
Tag Archives: exponential smoothing
Elucidate structure in intermittent demand time series
Nikolaos Kourentzes and George Athanasopoulos, 2020. European Journal of Operational Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.046
Optimising forecasting models for inventory planning
Nikolaos Kourentzesa, Juan R. Trapero, and Devon K. Barrow, 2020. International Journal of Production Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2019.107597
Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption
Evangelos Spiliotis, Fotios Petropoulos, Nikolaos Kourentzes and Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2020. Applied Energy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114339
Visit at Universitat Politècnica de València
I was recently invited to a workshop focused on forecasting and supply chain management at Valencia Polytechnic University. Many thanks to Ester Guijarro for organising the workshop and helping to bring together forecasters and supply chain experts! I presented on optimising forecasting model parameters for inventory management. You can find the presentation here, and a… Read More »
Judgmental Selection of Forecasting Models
Fotios Petropoulos, Nikolaos Kourentzes, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and Enno Siemsen, 2018, Journal of Operations Management. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jom.2018.05.005
OR59 Keynote: Uncertainty in predictive modelling
I recently presented at the OR59 conference my views and current work (with colleagues) on uncertainty in predictive modelling. I think this is a topic that deserves quite a bit of research attention, as it has substnatial implications for estimation, model selection and eventually decision making. The talk has three parts: Argue (as others before… Read More »
Unconstraining Methods for Revenue Management Systems under Small Demand
N. Kourentzes, D. Li and A.K. Strauss, 2017. Journal of Revenue & Pricing Management.
Benchmarking Facebook’s Prophet
Last February Facebook open sourced its Prophet forecasting tool. Since, it had appeared in quite a few discussions online. A good thing about Prophet is that it one can use it very easily through R (and Python). This gave me the opportunity to benchmark it against some more standard – and not! – forecasting models… Read More »
ISF2017 presentation: DIY forecasting – judgement, models & judgmental model selection
This is joint work with Fotios Petropoulos and Kostantinos Nikolopoulos and discusses the performance of experts selecting forecasting models, against automatic statistical model selection, as well as providing guidelines how to maximise the benefits. This is very exciting research, demonstrating the both some limitations of statistical model selection (and avenues for new research), as well… Read More »