Extrapolative forecasting, using models such as exponential smoothing, is arguably not very complicated from a mathematical point of view, but it requires a shift in logic in terms of what is a good forecast. For this discussion I will use a simple form of exponential smoothing to demontrate my point. 1. The forecasting model: single… Read More »
D. Barrow and N. Kourentzes, 2016, International Journal of Production Economics, 177: 24-33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2016.03.017
I will be hosting a special session on Estimating Demand Uncertainty in the upcoming International Society for Inventory Research conference ISIR2016. The link between forecasting and inventory calculations is often not as clear as it should be. This is evident by the formulas used for the safety stock calculation: the expected demand and its uncertainty… Read More »
Although Croston’s method and its variants are popular for intermittent demand time series, there have been limited advances in identifying how to select appropriate smoothing parameters and initial values. From the one hand this complicates forecasting for organisations, and from the other hand it does not permit automation. Recent research investigated various cost functions for… Read More »
N. Kourentzes, 2014, International Journal of Production Economics, 156: 180-190. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.06.007
F. Petropoulos and N. Kourentzes, 2015, Journal of Operational Research Society, 66: 914-924. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/jors.2014.62
N. Kourentzes, 2013, International Journal of Production Economics, 143: 198-206. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2013.01.009
M. Hibon, N. Kourentzes and S. F. Crone, 2013, The 33rd Annual international Symposium on Forecasting, Seoul.
N. Kourentzes, 2012, The 32nd Annual international Symposium on Forecasting, Boston.