The International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF 2015) was held this week in Riverside, CA. It was a very interesting conference, with stimulating talks and a wide variety of forecasting related topics, both for academics and practitioners. It is a highly recommended conference to attend. I organised the invited session on the topic of “Forecasting with… Read More »
From time to time people have asked me how to implement Holt Winters (trend-seasonal exponential smoothing) in Excel. I have my reservations for using Excel to do your day-to-day forecasting. Nonetheless, you can find an example here.
An update with regards to the special session on Energy Forecasting in the upcoming EURO conference. The abstract submission code for this session is: 4e0e6c1f Information about this special session of the Forecasting & Time Series Prediction stream can be found in the original post. Related PostsForecasting keynote at AMLC 2019 Visit at Universitat Politècnica… Read More »
I am organising a special session on the upcoming International Symposium on Forecasting with the topic “Forecasting with Combinations and Hierarchies”. Please contact me if you are interested to contribute to this session. In many applications there are time series that can be hierarchically organised and can be grouped or aggregated in several ways, based… Read More »
Juan R. Trapero and I are organising a special session on Energy Forecasting within the Forecasting & Time Series Prediction stream at EURO2014. Energy modelling and forecasting has become essential to optimize the generation, control and distribution processes of countries’ energy systems. This special session calls for abstracts analyzing concepts, models, methodologies, case studies that… Read More »
In this post I introduce a new bias metric that has several desirable properties over traditional ones. When evaluating forecasting performance it is important to look at two elements: forecasting accuracy and bias. Although there has been substantial progress in the measurement of accuracy with various metrics being proposed, there has been rather limited progress… Read More »
Aris Syntetos, Mohamed Zied Babai, John Boylan, Stephan Kolassa and Kostas Nikolopoulos have prepared a questionnaire about supply chain forecasting to help them on their research for a review article on the topic. I think that surveying the community to identify important areas for academics and practitioners is commendable. You can participate by submitting your… Read More »
I recently became aware of a new forecasting competition: “International Forecasting Competition – Computational Intelligence in Forecasting”. The competition involves forecasting 91 time series of annual, quarterly, monthly and daily sampling frequency of various lengths. Although the competition is focused on computational intelligence methods (incl. fuzzy method, artificial neural networks, evolutionary algorithms, decision & regression… Read More »
Seasonality is a common characteristic of time series. It can appear in two forms: additive and multiplicative. In the former case the amplitude of the seasonal variation is independent of the level, whereas in the latter it is connected. The following figure highlights this: Note that in the example of multiplicative seasonality the season is… Read More »
This is a guest blog entry by Fotios Petropoulos. A few months ago, Bergmeir, Hyndman and Benitez made available a very interesting working paper titled “Bagging exponential smoothing methods using STL decomposition and Box-Cox transformation”. In short, they successfully employed the bootstrap aggregation technique for improving the performance of exponential smoothing. The bootstrap technique is… Read More »