Automatic robust estimation for exponential smoothing: perspectives from statistics and machine learning
Devon Barrow, Nikolaos Kourentzes, Rickard Sandberg, and Jacek Niklewski, 2020. Expert Systems with Applications.
Elucidate structure in intermittent demand time series
Nikolaos Kourentzes and George Athanasopoulos, 2020. European Journal of Operational Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.046
Optimising forecasting models for inventory planning
Nikolaos Kourentzesa, Juan R. Trapero, and Devon K. Barrow, 2020. International Journal of Production Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2019.107597
Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption
Evangelos Spiliotis, Fotios Petropoulos, Nikolaos Kourentzes and Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2020. Applied Energy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114339
Forecasting keynote at AMLC 2019
A few weeks ago I gave a talk at Amazon’s 2019 AMLC in Seattle. The talk was focused on current research in temporal and cross-temporal hierarchies. People who have been following my blog will be familiar with the topic and recent advances. This talk is different in the sense that it does not go in… Read More: Forecasting keynote at AMLC 2019 »
Invited talk at Amazon Web Services
I was recently invited to give a talk at AWS in Berlin. I presented the current work on temporal and cross-temporal hierarchical forecasting. My view is that there is a lot of potential for these approaches to augment existing forecasting processes with relative ease. Considering the wider forecasting problem, we do not forecast for the… Read More: Invited talk at Amazon Web Services »
Visit at Universitat Politècnica de València
I was recently invited to a workshop focused on forecasting and supply chain management at Valencia Polytechnic University. Many thanks to Ester Guijarro for organising the workshop and helping to bring together forecasters and supply chain experts! I presented on optimising forecasting model parameters for inventory management. You can find the presentation here, and a… Read More: Visit at Universitat Politècnica de València »
ISF2019 talk: Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for tourism forecasting
This year’s International Symposium on Forecasting has been a great success. Very exciting talks and large attendance from both academics and practitioners. I really enjoy conferences that the two groups interact organically: only this way research is both relevant and adopted fast, so that it makes a difference! This year I was invited by Haiyan… Read More: ISF2019 talk: Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for tourism forecasting »
Towards the “one-number forecast”
1. Introductory remarks One of the recurrent topics in online discussions on sales forecasting and demand planning is the idea of the “one-number forecast”, that is a common view of the future on which multiple plans and decisions can be made, from different functions of an organisation. In principle, this is yet another idea around… Read More: Towards the “one-number forecast” »
Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism
Nikolaos Kourentzes and George Athanasopoulos, 2019, Annals of Tourism Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2019.02.001