Recently I posted about a paper I co-authored with Fotios Petropoulos, now in JORS: Forecast Combinations for Intermittent Demand. There we found that for intermittent demand data using multiple levels of temporal aggregation, forecasting them with the appropriate models and finally combining the forecasts performed best. This approach has many analogies with the MAPA algorithm… Read More »
Over the years I have reviewed numerous papers that do not properly benchmark the various methods proposed. In my opinion if a paper has an empirical evaluation, then it must have appropriate benchmarks as well. Otherwise, one cannot claim that convincing empirical evidence is provided. The argument is simple: if the proposed method does not… Read More »
A new package for analysing and forecasting intermittent demand time series and slow moving items has been release for R. You can download the latest version from CRAN. The launch version contains the following functions: crost: Croston’s method and variants. crost.ma: Moving average with Croston’s method decomposition. idclass: Time series categorisation for intermittent demand. simID:… Read More »
N. Kourentzes, 2014, International Journal of Production Economics, 156: 180-190. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.06.007
In most business forecasting applications, the problem usually directs the sampling frequency of the data that we collect and use for forecasting. Conventional approaches try to extract information from the historical observations to build a forecasting model. In this article, we explore how transforming the data through temporal aggregation allows us to gather additional information… Read More »
F. Petropoulos and N. Kourentzes, 2015, Journal of Operational Research Society, 66: 914-924. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/jors.2014.62
N. Kourentzes, 2013, International Journal of Production Economics, 143: 198-206. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2013.01.009
N. Kourentzes, 2012, The 32nd Annual international Symposium on Forecasting, Boston.
N. Kourentzes and S. F. Crone, 2010, The 30th Annual international Symposium on Forecasting, San Diego.