Tag Archives: optimisation

Exponential smoothing demo

In my experience users of exponential smoothing have often limited transparency in how the various smoothing parameters interact. I built this small demo to illustrate how the different smoothing parameters and exponential smoothing components interact. You can choose between some simulated and some real time series, as well as the option to add outliers or… Read More: Exponential smoothing demo »

Choosing parameters for Croston’s method and its variants

Although Croston’s method and its variants are popular for intermittent demand time series, there have been limited advances in identifying how to select appropriate smoothing parameters and initial values. From the one hand this complicates forecasting for organisations, and from the other hand it does not permit automation. Recent research investigated various cost functions for… Read More: Choosing parameters for Croston’s method and its variants »

MAPA and intermittent demand forecasting

Recently I posted about a paper I co-authored with Fotios Petropoulos, now in JORS: Forecast Combinations for Intermittent Demand. There we found that for intermittent demand data using multiple levels of temporal aggregation, forecasting them with the appropriate models and finally combining the forecasts performed best. This approach has many analogies with the MAPA algorithm… Read More: MAPA and intermittent demand forecasting »

Intermittent demand forecasting package for R

A new package for analysing and forecasting intermittent demand time series and slow moving items has been release for R. You can download the latest version from CRAN. The launch version contains the following functions: crost: Croston’s method and variants. crost.ma: Moving average with Croston’s method decomposition. idclass: Time series categorisation for intermittent demand. simID:… Read More: Intermittent demand forecasting package for R »