Another interactive demo I created for the courses I teach. This one is about simple exponential smoothing and the main objective is to show the interaction between smoothing parameter and initial level in the fitting and holdout samples. A different interactive demo about exponential smoothing can be found here. A couple of points that may… Read More: Interactive simple exponential smoothing »
This is a talk I am giving today at Tasmanian School of Business and Economics at University of Tasmania. It connects two different research areas I am currently working on: solar irradiance forecasting and parameter optimisation under model uncertainty. You can find the presentation here. Half of the presentation is based on this paper if… Read More: Forecasting Solar Irradiance: True models, trace optimisation and shrinkage »
This is a talk that I am giving today at the University of Sydney Business School. This research builds upon MAPA and cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting, in particular optimal combinations. Temporal hierarchies reconcile across time, resulting in accurate short and long-term forecasts that can lead to aligned plans and decisions. Temporal hierarchies can be used with… Read More: Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies »
This is a talk that I gave at Monash University, where I am currently visiting. The topic of this research is exploring ways to avoid the assumption that the postulated model we are using is true for the data generating process of the time series we want to forecast. From this starting point we proceed… Read More: True models, trace optimisation and parameter shrinkage »
N. Kourentzes, J.R. Trapero, 2015, 27th European Conference on operational Research, Glasgow.
J.R. Trapero, N. Kourentzes, A. Martin, 2015, 27th European Conference on operational Research, Glasgow.
I. Svetunkov, N. Kourentzes, 2015, 27th European Conference on operational Research, Glasgow.
The International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF 2015) was held this week in Riverside, CA. It was a very interesting conference, with stimulating talks and a wide variety of forecasting related topics, both for academics and practitioners. It is a highly recommended conference to attend. I organised the invited session on the topic of “Forecasting with… Read More: ISF 2015 and invited session on “Forecasting with Combinations and… »
From time to time people have asked me how to implement Holt Winters (trend-seasonal exponential smoothing) in Excel. I have my reservations for using Excel to do your day-to-day forecasting. Nonetheless, you can find an example here.
J.R. Trapero, N. Kourentzes and A. Martin, 2015, Energy, 84: 289-295. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.02.100