Tag Archives: exponential smoothing

Guest post: On the robustness of bagging exponential smoothing

This is a guest blog entry by Fotios Petropoulos. A few months ago, Bergmeir, Hyndman and Benitez made available a very interesting working paper titled “Bagging exponential smoothing methods using STL decomposition and Box-Cox transformation”. In short, they successfully employed the bootstrap aggregation technique for improving the performance of exponential smoothing. The bootstrap technique is… Read More: Guest post: On the robustness of bagging exponential smoothing »

Exponential smoothing demo

In my experience users of exponential smoothing have often limited transparency in how the various smoothing parameters interact. I built this small demo to illustrate how the different smoothing parameters and exponential smoothing components interact. You can choose between some simulated and some real time series, as well as the option to add outliers or… Read More: Exponential smoothing demo »

Improving your forecasts using multiple temporal aggregation

In most business forecasting applications, the problem usually directs the sampling frequency of the data that we collect and use for forecasting. Conventional approaches try to extract information from the historical observations to build a forecasting model. In this article, we explore how transforming the data through temporal aggregation allows us to gather additional information… Read More: Improving your forecasts using multiple temporal aggregation »